His statement caused me to think about the condition of our nation today. As I consider the data regarding the perceptions, values, behavior, and dreams of Americans, especially younger Americans, it seems clear that while we love the remaining freedoms and benefits of living in the United States, many citizens lack a real relationship with this nation and thus rebel against its rules and traditions. We are eager to take advantage of what’s available but are substantially less willing to sacrifice and invest for the good of the nation. The “common good” is a foreign concept to many Americans. Despite many politically correct speeches about “community,” “sharing,” “serving,” “tolerance,” and sensitivity, there often seems to be more lip service to bonding with America than behavior that supports it.

Think about the education our children receive these days. Gone are stalwart classes such as Civics or practices such as saying the pledge of allegiance or singing the national anthem. Perhaps in your area many community organizations that fostered a pro-country attitude or worldview have receded or closed down. Turn on the television or radio and you may encounter a mainstream media that seems more intent on challenging America’s foundations and heart than helping to build a sense of national spirit. Even in this year’s presidential campaign, when several candidates have spoken movingly about their love for our country, the response was to have their motives questioned, their personal lives attacked, and their sentiments dismissed.

I wonder how much longer the United States can withstand such a deficit of investment in upholding the foundations of our country, and thinking about the meaning of and commitment to the common good. And it is concerning that the two youngest generations of Americans seem to view society’s rules as barriers to overcome rather than legacies of love and wisdom.

As supporters and beneficiaries of those standards and historic commitments, I believe that America’s Christians have a special role to play in defending, conveying, and strengthening the foundations of our country.

Am I the only one who worries about our fading sense of loyalty to and connection with our republic? Do you sense that we have a problem regarding our individual relationships with the United States? How well do you think we, as Christians, are adequately protecting, explicating, and restoring the foundations of the U.S.? What else could we do? What have you done that you are proud of in this regard?

It was an interesting exercise to try to create my own list of the 10 most fascinating people in America – granted a very subjective list. My criteria are rather different than Ms. Walters’. My primary focus is upon people who added some value to society or whose life raised bigger questions with which we need to wrestle. Here, briefly is my list, in no particular order:

1. Tim Tebow – comeback king and quarterback of the Denver Broncos whose unquestionable love for Jesus has been as well-reported – and controversial – as his football skills
2. Rob Bell – former megachurch pastor whose book challenged prevailing evangelical dogma about salvation, raising a healthy discussion about what we believe and why regarding sin, salvation, heaven, and hell
3. Bill McRaven – the Vice Admiral in charge of the Navy SEAL mission resulting in the assassination of Osama bin Laden. His description of the underlying strategy made a complex operation seem simple
4. Seth Godin – perennial rabble-rouser and marketing guru whose digital publishing efforts are helping to redefine book publishing in interesting ways
5. Kalle Lasn – instigator of the Occupy Wall Street movement, which has raised awareness of a significant social condition
6. Newt Gingrich – widely deemed dead meat in the presidential campaign in mid-year, he has not only made a political comeback (that may or may not last) but has intriguingly addressed questions about personal morality and faith while uniquely avoiding personal slams of his competitors and returning focus to issues rather than personalities
7. Alex Kendrick – another hit movie (Courageous) made on a minimal budget and featuring clear, underlying biblical themes continued his track record of leading the way in faith-based, family-oriented movies
8. Billy Graham – the esteemed evangelist has been struggling with the reality of physical infirmity, the passing of his wife, and his own imminent passing with characteristic grace and wisdom, raising challenging questions for each of us to consider
9. Joe Bonamassa – this 34-year-old master guitarist has swept the blues-rock world by storm, via incessant touring, superb recordings, good use of social media, impeccable performances, and genuine gratitude toward his growing fan base
10. Reed Hastings – he has been the relentless, driving force behind the groundbreaking growth of Netflix, which has continued to rewrite the rule book on how to be profitable through online mainstream entertainment options

Such a list is definitely idiosyncratic. I also discovered that it is rather flexible; tomorrow I’d probably replace a handful of these names with others who were also intriguing this past year.

Who would you put on your list?

I first became acquainted with George Gallup Jr. while I was in graduate school in New Jersey, back in the dark ages. I heard him speak at a small event in Princeton where he talked about some dynamics of religion in America. I had invited the pastor of my church to attend with me. I was a brand new Christian at the time so Pastor Dan and I had an interesting discussion afterwards concerning the eminent pollster’s thoughts about faith and lifestyle. It was actually my first exposure to any public opinion researcher discussing statistics related to people’s beliefs and religious practices.

I don’t know how much of an influence that experience had on my eventual career path, but it was the first of many times our paths would cross. The next occasion was about three years later when I was leading the research and marketing divisions of a media development agency in Chicago. The owner of the firm had previously hired the Gallup Organization to conduct a large research project during which he became acquainted with George. My boss offered to introduce us, hoping that George might help me fill in some data gaps in my first book.

Soon thereafter I returned to Princeton to meet with George and was overwhelmed by his kindness. He could not have been more welcoming and helpful. He offered me office space to work in, free access to all of the non-proprietary Gallup data, and spent time sharing his personal reflections on the topic. Because the subject matter – faith trends and cultural impact – was dear to his heart as well, his reflections were well-conceived and interesting. He even brought me in to meet his father, the man who essentially launched the public opinion research industry, and I listened in awe as the elder Gallup added his insights on that topic and several others.

Having recently emerged from the über competitive academic world, the graciousness and collegiality of the Gallup family (I also met George’s brother Alec and George Jr.’s daughter, Alison, both of whom worked in the family business) made a lasting impression. George Jr. did not seem at all threatened by the aggressive youngster who shared the established researcher’s twin passions for research and faith. Of course, George’s family was in the research pantheon, and I was just a green kid still learning the trade. Yet his easy, encouraging demeanor caused me to reconceive how a true research professional – especially one for whom Christ is the center of existence – serves and responds to others.

Throughout the next 25 years George and I had various occasions to spend time together, often on my trips back to Princeton, where his company was headquartered for many years. George was a man of good humor, curious nature, and warm hospitality. I found him to be consistently gentle, kind, playful, and seeking ways to be supportive. Although our discussions invariably identified a few differences in how we measured or interpreted the beliefs and behaviors of Americans, he was always respectful in his comments. To his credit, he was also willing to consider the viability of divergent approaches to measuring things that matter.

Several times my publishers asked me to get George to write endorsements for books I’d written. I don’t believe cover blurbs have much marketing value but many publishers place a great deal of stock in them. I also try to avoid asking people to do favors for me. But on a couple of occasions I mustered the determination to ask George if he’d review the manuscript and perhaps offer a blurb if he felt so inclined. Invariably, consistent with his polite and giving nature, he enthusiastically agreed to read the material and send a paragraph in support of those books.

One of the common experiences in my life was also a source of embarrassment to me because of how it reflected on George. Often, when I would be introduced to speak at a conference or to someone in a private conversation, I would be introduced as “the evangelical George Gallup.” I always felt that was an insult to George, whose love for Jesus and commitment to the faith was beyond question. Many people don’t know that he went to seminary before leaving to take a job in the family business. Sometimes I’d object to the phrase and attempt to defend George’s spiritual depth and commitment, only to find people’s eyes glaze pretty quickly. To them it was just a quick way of defining my place on the spectrum; to me, it was an unfair minimizing of a brother’s deep convictions. Sadly, such superficialities become the norm all-too-often in a sound bite/video clip society.

During the past five or six years I had hoped that we could collaborate on a book about our views regarding the future of the Church and this nation. While he was agreeable to the idea, the timing never worked because he was still immersed in completing a biography about his father as well as a testimonial book regarding his beloved late wife, Kinny. I always used to chuckle after our conversations because when I first sat in George’s office in the early 1980s he was writing that book about his dad. There he was, 30 years later, still rifling through volumes of support documents and crafting his loving homage to his dad. Hopefully his family will enable whatever George completed to see the light of day; it no doubt contains heartfelt insights into George Sr., as well as new revelations regarding the early days of the public opinion profession (which his dad was instrumental in launching).

In many ways, George Gallup Jr. was a highly significant mentor to me. While the 3,000-mile gulf between us prevented frequent face-to-face exchanges, those meetings were supplemented by letters and occasional telephone conversations. He is one of a small group of individuals from whom I learned lessons that I never encountered in the classroom. Among the lessons he taught was the appropriate demeanor of a research professional whose Christian faith was front and center in both the way he interacted with people as well as the quality of the work he produced. And his advice on handling criticism and misattributions – problems with which he was well-acquainted – was invaluable.

George passed away on November 21, 2011 after a bout with liver cancer. He was 81 years old. I will miss George. He was one of the good guys. He was not a self-promoter and he certainly did not possess the killer instinct or drive for supremacy that would have made him countless millions in our dog-eat-dog industry. But he did possess the heart of Christ that made him a treasure in the kingdom and a joy to those who knew him.

Unfortunately, I find it difficult to read when conversational interviews occur nearby at a loud volume, so I was intermittently dragged into the content of the program. The segment that distracted me the most was the program’s farewell to curmudgeonly commentator Andy Rooney. I heard his responses to several questions. One of his statements struck me.

“A writer’s job is to tell the truth,” said Mr. Rooney.

I will not delve into the irony of that statement emanating from a program that, to my mind, is one of the most flagrant transgressors of that very sentiment. But Mr. Rooney’s words are well-taken, regardless of the source. A writer is an educator, and an educator has a responsibility to convey truth in order to advance people’s well-being.

Perhaps this hit me so hard because of my recent stop at a local bookstore. Like most authors, I am drawn to bookstores. As my wife will attest, a “quick stop” at a bookshop is 30 minutes; a more typical visit lasts well beyond an hour. During last week’s experience I was blown away by the sheer volume of pabulum and outright lies being sold to the public. Volume after volume, especially in areas concerning politics, history, religion, sociology, culture, arts, and parenting – the subjects which I perused at length – conveyed distortions that would be laughable if not for the fact that millions of ill-advised people innocently embrace those half-truths and full-on lies.

Of course such a criticism is difficult to sustain these days. Where there is no absolute moral or spiritual truth that we universally or even generally accept, then one man’s truth is no better or worse than any other man’s truth, as long as he firmly embraces it. Mr. Rooney’s statement needs to be updated for today’s world: “A writer’s job is to tell his truth” or perhaps “his version of the truth.” Consequently one could argue that a reader’s job these days is simply to consider the various truth versions available, identify which one she likes the most, and own it.

I would like to give Mr. Rooney the benefit of the doubt and believe that he really meant what he said, that his words could be taken at face value. He comes from a generation that still generally contends there are absolute truths that exist whether people acknowledge and accept them or not. Sadly, that perspective is losing ground faster than we realize. And that rapid and seemingly unrestrained redefinition of truth is a sad commentary on the depth, engagement, and influence of the Church today.

Having spent time at the Dream Center in Los Angeles while writing the book The Cause within You with Matthew Barnett, this phrase brought to mind the people I’d met and worked with at DC-LA, people who pour themselves into helping struggling people find God, themselves, and their God-given purpose for living. It is inspiring to be around such people, and uplifting to watch the mighty works that God does in and through the lives of those who give themselves fully to Him. They fit my notion of those who are devoted in very tangible and productive ways to a great and holy cause.

During the 30 years of research I’ve been blessed to conduct, it may seem curious that I never directly asked people to identify the single “great and holy cause” to which they are devoted. That question never occurred to me because the questions I have posed regarding purpose, meaning, influence, service, holiness, and the like have consistently revealed that very few Americans are devoted to any cause greater than their own well-being. Most people say they want to “make a difference.” Few people are willing to sacrifice and suffer on behalf of a cause that may be righteous and other-centered but also controversial, challenging, underfunded, or culturally invisible.

Forgive me if this seems like a rant. It’s not meant to be. After spending the last six years immersed in the research and personal struggles related to holistic transformation, as described in Maximum Faith, I know that transformation must start with me before I can hope to facilitate it in the lives of others.

So today I am challenging myself to produce a full profile of the “great and holy cause” to which I am devoting my life.

And I am asking you to do the same.

As a cautionary note, we cannot seduce ourselves into believing that simplistic and pious answers like “I am devoted to the cause of Christ” or “I am devoted to the advance of the kingdom of God” are adequate. Those are pleasant concepts, but what specifically is the heartbeat of our activity in such a grand pursuit? What do these sweeping expressions, like “the cause of Christ” or “advancing the kingdom” really mean – and look like? What, specifically, are you and I doing – today – that reflects our total commitment to a great and holy cause? This is the difference between mission (we are servants of God) and vision (the specific and unique calling He has gifted and prepared us for). Getting beyond mission to vision is where the rubber meets the road, and getting beyond vision to execution is where transformation becomes a reality.

What are some likely contours of the future of book publishing? This is a debate that has caused tremendous stress among publishers, authors, bookstores, and even some consumers. To get a handle on that stress we have to realize that such anxieties are generally attributable to two primary causes: fear of the unknown and the resultant uncertainty about what to do. If we do our homework, though, we can reduce much of that stress. Here are some thoughts to stimulate your thinking about what lies ahead for books, focusing on trends affecting each of the four primary actors in this play.

What the Future Holds for Authors

This is a moment of great opportunity for anyone who wants to be an author; every day delivers new and seemingly limitless options for those who are willing to let the past go and seize these burgeoning possibilities.

Publishing is changing quickly. Those who are expected to provide reliable analyses of the emerging changes cannot agree on where things stand, even on such simple matters as how many new books are being published each year. While the estimates vary, one thing the analysts do agree upon: more than one million new titles are being published each year, and most of those are self-published editions.

In fact, thanks to the availability of new technologies, novel marketing strategies, and new business models, it appears that self-published books now outnumber conventional by 5-to-2 margin. It’s not like the old days, with a handful of gatekeepers limiting who gets onto the playing field and how they will play the game. It’s a wholly new game because now everyone has equal access to the means of publishing. At long last, the long-held notion that “everyone has a book in them” is being put to the test.

But recognize that the expanded pool of opportunities is balanced by heightened competition for resources such as book buyers, reader attention, publishing contracts, marketing dollars, shelf space, or the other ingredients required for publishing success. As those in the business well know, there is a massive distinction between publishing a book and achieving meaningful sales of that resource.

In this mix, then, one of the most important shifts is that the fundamental definition of “published author” is changing. Because of the myriad changes in the industry and the publishing process, it is increasing less feasible – and in many cases, less desirable – to be an author who simply writes a manuscript and hands it off to a publisher to complete the process (e.g., editing, design, legal, manufacturing, marketing, sales, warehousing, distribution, sales accounting, and so forth). Increasingly, a successful author will be one who fills the role of a project manager – envisioning, lining up, and orchestrating the contributions of a team of partners who each handles one or more of those publishing functions.

Consequently, it will become more common – and important – for authors to know freelance professionals who can perform those various tasks in a manner that serves the manuscript well.

Embedded within this massive shift of responsibilities is one particular transition that is perhaps the most important recalibration of them all: no matter what format and distribution route an author chooses these days he/she must also be the chief marketer of their book, especially through new technologies (e.g. social media platforms). To succeed, an author must write like John Grisham and market like Steve Jobs. Sales success mandates that the author commit personal time and resources to promoting the book for a prolonged period of time. The brief, three-month marketing window that has characterized boom publishing for decades is outdated; now, the author must persevere and perform a slow build for his/her product.

In the near future, growing numbers of authors will circumvent traditional publishers altogether because the value of what they surrender in a traditional publishing deal exceeds the value they receive – especially in light of these heightened marketing responsibilities and newly-accessible means to manufacturing and marketing.

New models will be developed and implemented – some of which we are already seeing in the marketplace. For instance, e-books can be easily and quickly created and sold, and for higher payouts than traditional publishers offer to authors. Serial publishing – selling books by the chapter – will become common and benefit an author by building a sense of consumer urgency regarding their book. Print-on-demand (POD) removes the need for manufacturing and warehousing and expedite getting a book into the marketplace.

And writers should get comfortable with the idea of producing “living manuscripts” – that is, books that endure continual revisions based on new ideas, current information, reader feedback, and cultural changes. Such real-time republishing is made possible by strategies such as e-books and POD. Thanks to social media, and especially to the advent and exploding popularity of e-books, the distance between author and reader is being eliminated – and you can bet that each will use the closing of that gap to their advantage.

What the Future Holds for Publishers

In the same manner that the experience of being an author is being recalibrated, so is the notion of being a publisher changing dramatically. There are new products and formats, new competitors, two new generations of readers who are oblivious to the old ways, new distribution channels, and new means of marketing. Consequently, the standard business models that have driven the publishing industry for decades can no longer hold up. New technologies, new types of vendors, new types of authors, new development and distribution arrangements, and new ways of reaching and connecting with the audience must be embraced and refined.

In essence, we are watching the re-invention of publishing and publishers are at the heart of this new reality. Incremental change will fail; playing it safe will hasten one’s demise.

So this has become a time to re-conceive the product itself. A book is an experience, one that tells a personal story of some type. To succeed it must make a connection with the target audience. We have to re-imagine the book as something more than paper and ink, or even digital bytes; it is a competitive entertainment product that must meet needs, even if its primary purpose is best served in an educational setting, a business environment, or the pews. The content must capture the heart and mind of the reader if it is to have any lasting influence and marketplace longevity.

Those of us who work in the publishing industry have to remember that consumers do not think in the same linear, bounded categories that those in the business do. Our target customers are not locked into product categories like book, movie, song, TV, or video game. They have an itch and they want something to scratch it. They think about the benefit they need that moment and are just as satisfied with one solution as another.

That mind set has changed the way that product development and marketing work. Whatever we produce must address those very real felt needs. For instance, people have less time to read, so shorter books often make the most sense to them. People’s time is frantic and fragmented, so providing them with bundled options, optimizing their use of technology devices at their whim, is gaining popularity. Sometimes it makes sense to integrate multiple media and devices in what is offered. Including value-added components to address multiple needs (author interviews, research findings, biblical lessons, etc.) attracts many people.

With these changes comes the need to redefine the self-perception of a publisher. Such an entity is no longer the protector of paper content; these days a publisher must be format agnostic, viewed as a content provider rather than a publisher of ink on bound pages. Such an entity must pay closer attention to the clock, recognizing that the culture is moving at warp speed. No longer is it acceptable to consume two years time from the acceptance of an author’s idea to sale of the final product. Such an entity must realize that design is now a significant part of each project. Consumers have a heightened interest in design – whether it is to enhance the comfort of reading, to increase the pure readability of the product, to escalate the intimacy of the message, to attract attention to the product in the first place, or to expand the versatility of the layout.

Fortunately for book publishers, they need not learn these lessons through hard-won experience. Their survival can be made easier by learning from the experience of sister industries. For instance, digital rights management and piracy issues have hit the music and movie industries hard; there are direct applications for publishers. Video stores – you remember them? – lost their foothold in the marketplace because of their insistence on retaining dying formats. Most media industries have discovered that with a fragmented marketplace and such dispersed media opportunities it is important to invest sales, marketing and promotional dollars generously but wisely. Cutting back on such spending simply hastens an entity’s demise in an age when the competition for consumer attention is so fierce.

Perhaps the most sensitive area relates to the connection between publishers and their life blood – authors. That relationship is in the midst of a holistic and often painful transformation.

Many authors – especially those who have worked their entire career in this mold – will choose to stick with the traditional “writer only” role, due to lack of entrepreneurial interest or the diversity of skills and relationships necessary to succeed in the new world of author-as-publisher. It is highly likely that the number of “writer only” authors will diminish fairly rapidly over the coming two decades.

In their place is emerging an entire universe of what we might call entrepreneurial authors. They are more like farmers than factory bosses – involved in the planting of the seed for their product through to its harvesting, incorporating and supervising the efforts of specialists en route to the final product.  To work effectively with the traditional authors, publishers will need to expand their toolbox to facilitate the development of a reader community and providing new-era marketing services and guidance.

Regardless of what camp an author comes from – the author-in-charge or the publisher-dependent author – publishers need to realize they have to prove their value to authors with every project. Such value is no longer evident, assumed, or automatically credible. In order to verify their value to authors, a new currency is emerging: flexible partnership. Advances and royalty scales used to rule the day; in this new era of personal independence the rules have changed dramatically. As authors assume more of the responsibility and risk, even in a traditional publishing deal, they will need to be part of a publishing partnership that reflects these redefined roles. For publishers this is a drastic transition: they are no longer in charge, they no longer set the rules, and if they threaten to take their ball and leave the field, they may be invited to do so without hesitancy on the part of the author.

Realize that this means the standard publishing contract offered to an author is becoming irrelevant. Think about some of the clauses the pub houses routinely include for authors to agree to; they are changing as we speak. An example is multi-media rights, which are no longer a throw-in, part of the boilerplate that publishers expect and authors ignore. The new media and technology options provide authors with many ways of cashing in on those opportunities without the participation of a publishing house. You can expect to witness far fewer full-service, one-stop deals between publishers and authors as those who create the product instead parcel out various responsibilities to those who add the greatest value to their work.

The guerilla in the corner of the room, of course, is digital production and distribution. Publishers must embrace digital publishing, but must do so sensibly. The last few years have introduced all kinds of wild projections about the growth of digital books. While this is clearly one of the most important domains of the industry’s future, it is also just as clear that many analysts, even some who are typically responsible, have grossly overstated the growth curves and immediate importance of e-books. Granted, this format has grown from nothing to something seemingly overnight. But be realistic; digital book sales will not be 50% of sales by 2015, as some researchers are stating. Note that most people are not switching all their reading from physical to digital. And while bundling is an important strategy it is not the only strategy to employ.

We are still in an exploratory phase regarding the place of digital books. In fact, we are currently in that uncomfortable zone where the format of choice has yet to be determined. With more than a handful of digital formats in use, each with its own following and dedicated equipment, we’re still in the Beta versus DVD era, the DOS/Windows vs. Mac competition. Investing heavily in one approach or another will have long-term implications.

Another serious element to consider is the other guerilla in the room: amazon.com. Amazon’s goal is to not just dominate the digital book market but to control it. Whatever strategy a publishing unit develops must have worked through how it will tangle – or tango – with this monster.

What the Future Holds for Bookstores

The same fundamental challenges facing publishers face bookstores: the old business models are inadequate for the new era, consumer expectations and buying patterns are shifting, retailer relationships with authors need to be reconceived, the economic collapse has altered marketplace behaviors, and innovations in technology is affecting everything.

Christian bookstores cannot survive if they retain the attitude that they are simply an extension of a few local churches and that their product mix is so different that they have a built-in market. The truth is that Christian products are readily available in a wide variety of places, often more inexpensively, and with a nation of consumers for whom loyalty is a thing of the past, much of the long-time natural advantage held by Christian retailers has dissipated. That does not mean they cannot be successful retailers; it simply means that success now requires different strategy and tactics.

Changes in technology require Christian stores to provide a wider catalogue of products and services, such as print-on-demand capabilities or digital books and music. Changes in the economy merit serious consideration of shifts in product pricing, perhaps moving to demand-based pricing (sometimes called “dynamic” pricing). That approach is already deployed by airlines and hotels and is being tested for sports and music events. Changes in shopping patterns suggest that store location and the blend of products will more significantly influence revenue potential than before. Changes in database management capabilities mean that knowing each individual customer’s interests, tastes, patterns and preferences becomes a more critical differentiator than ever. Your database may be your single most valuable asset – if it is robust, current, and wisely and consistently utilized.

What the Future Holds for Book Readers

Reading and book buying are not the same today as they were even ten years ago. In a culture that demands more options, better options, and new options, readers are faced with a plethora of choices never before available.

Consumers may now pick either a physical book or a digital product. It’s possible to buy the entire book or selected chapters. They can purchase books online or at a brick-and-mortar book shop. They may read their chosen literature in the form of a physical book, on a mobile device (phone, e-reader, tablet), on a desktop computer, or listen to it via an audio book. If they prefer, they can make their way through the content using multiple devices, seamlessly picking up where they left off thanks to cloud computing. Increasingly, a reader can even participate in the development of the content by working with an author to provide pre-release input or helping to reshape a released product for an updated edition.

The types of content that people want to read at any given time will continue their eternal and generally unpredictable pendulum swing. As I write this the sales momentum has shifted toward biographies and novels while categories that were popular in the past (e.g., leadership) are in the doldrums. We now live in a story-telling period where people want to understand other people’s experiences. But this, too, shall change in the not-too-distant future as people tire of what they enjoy today and search for the next big thing.

Thanks to the growth of digital formats and the need for publishers and online retailers to generate a following, consumers are likely to show renewed interest in the classics – largely because so many of them are now free, public domain downloads. But we will also experience activity in new segments of publishing, such as “flash fiction” – very short stories delivered digitally that allow people to escape their present reality in bite sized pieces. Meanwhile, gift books will remain mostly physical books. And, thankfully, all the changes occurring these days will reduce the number of books with padded page counts; people lack the budget, time, interest in supporting excessive verbiage.

As always happens with the encroachment of new technology, users will become more adept and more comfortable with digital platforms and devices and transition into multi-platform readers. Today we are seeing many people purchase books they expect to read a single time (e.g. novels) via an e-reader, and purchase titles they expect to retain as part of their permanent collection via physical book.

One of the reasons digital books will continue their growth is their ability to satisfy the consumer’s desire for media participation and product customization. Before the end of this decade many of us will regularly read a book digitally, make highlighted text and margin notes alongside the digital text, then create a personal, abridged copy that incorporates our notations. After we save that new version on our computer, we can then share it with others (via email or the cloud), or even create a new physical book via POD that represents a unique product created by you and the original author.

The Future of Books

So, looking back at my original promise, how does understanding these transitions reduce your stress? By reducing the uncertainties and eliminating fear of the unknown.

Let’s be realistic. We are entering a new golden age for books. We are not seeing the death of books; we are seeing their renaissance and expansion. The decline in the sales of physical books through traditional outlets is not indicative of the death of that medium but of the extension of the medium into new alternatives.

Don’t lose sight of the fact that books are experiencing increased influence in our society due to improvements in accessibility, flexibility, convenient availability, multi-media integration, affordability, quantity of titles, expanded authorship, formats, speed to market, interior design, and even rising global literacy. These are gains to be celebrated by everyone, but especially by those within the world of book publishing.

The fact that popular technological innovations have included books within the sweep of their influence is a blessing. After all, it is better to be redefined by the popular advances than to remain stable and outside people’s frame of awareness. In other words, it’s better to play an unfamiliar position and still be in the game than to retain your familiar position in a game that has ended.

We need not worry about the durability of book publishing; it will outlive us both. It will do so because it is about identifying great ideas that improve lives, platforming the best representatives of those ideas, and effectively communicating and distributing those ideas. After all, societies breathe new ideas. Publishing provides the oxygen. Every vital culture relies upon a thriving publishing sector for a culture without stimulating, compelling, provocative voices and messages on some form of a printed page is an impoverished and impoverishing culture. Nobody wins in such a society.

Having noted the inevitability of the continuation of the book publishing, we must also recognize that the publishing industry and process will never return to the way it was. And we must also acknowledge how foolish it would be to attempt to retard progress or to try to force it back into the old box. This is a time of new wineskins; seeking to return to the old wineskins is a loser’s strategy. The train has left the station, friends; grab a-hold of the railing on the caboose and get on board or guarantee your irrelevance.

This isn’t as big a deal as some are making it out to be. Business models constantly change – and in this new global economy driven by technology and the speed it provides, such models are and will be changing more frequently and dramatically than ever. Get used to it. It’s a way of thinking that must be adapted and adopted in order to remain in the game.

Many have already learned how to do this. Apple transitioned from a manufacturer of user-friendly computers playing within the rules of the computer industry into a developer of digital communication devices in which it set the rules. E-bay read the trends correctly and transitioned from an online auction hub to an online shopping mall. You can make a similar transition if you are willing.

There will be more than a few moments of confusion as you chart your new path. You may wonder what to make of the new developments since physical books, though no longer the only game in town, will remain foundational to the book world for years to come. Digital books, as rapid as their growth has been so far, still represent potential to be tested. Don’t get hysterical over audacious, unproven, unlikely claims about the future. Those who predict that e-books will represent 50% of all book sales within three years have little understanding of product growth curves, generational values, and new technology adoption rates.

This is a time of innovation, exploration and experimentation. Impact demands that you take some risks; the future of publishing, no matter which player you are, will require some risk. But this is a n era when true leaders will shine, as they capitalize on the emerging opportunities and move forward on the basis of wise strategy and nimble response. Remember, all new things are borne in the midst of chaos. Historically, the greater the confusion, the greater the opportunity, and the more likely a significant innovation is to emerge. It takes great leadership to work within the chaos to shape something of value from it, without attempting to deny, counteract, or disembody the chaos.

The only way to protect whatever assets you have is to embrace intelligent change. That does not mean jettisoning physical books or stores for an all-digital approach. That does not mean adopting a “ride out the storm” mentality of incrementalism. That does not mean investing more resources in media and marketing in an effort to delay, deny, or diminish the digital invasion. It does mean that you must bring some serious resources to the field, and organize them well. Start with vision, add creativity, have the strength and courage to take intelligent risks, be diligent in forging ahead, stay close to the other players.

Henceforth, no matter what role you play, you can count on the world of book publishing to provide a wild ride. Hang on and enjoy it.

For instance, among Catholics, there was significant movement from 1991 to 2001 regarding declining church attendance, declining adult Sunday school involvement, increase in personal commitments made to Christ, and an uptick in the number of born again adults – but no significant movement in these factors during the past decade. Protestants had a similar experience, with decreasing church attendance, declining church volunteerism, and expansion in attendance of large churches taking place from 1991 through 2001 and then holding steady for the last ten years.

There remain interesting and telling differences between Catholics and Protestants, underscoring the fact that despite the substantial cross-pollination that has occurred between the two factions in recent decades, each of those strains of Christianity within the U.S. remains a unique expression of the faith.

Protestants are four times more likely than Catholic adults to attend a Sunday school class, despite a 31% drop in such engagement among Protestants over the last 20 years. Protestants also continue to be three times more likely than Catholics to volunteer at a church; twice as likely to read the Bible during a typical week; only half as likely to attend a large church; 21% more likely to maintain an orthodox view of the nature of God; 45% less likely to write off Satan as merely a symbol of evil but not a living entity; twice as likely to firmly believe that the Bible is totally accurate in all the principles it teaches; more than twice as likely to accept personal responsibility for sharing their faith in Christ with others; and two-and-a-half times as likely to satisfy the born again criteria. Not surprisingly, Protestants are also 21% more likely to argue that their religious faith is very important in their life.

Although I am not a Catholic today, I was raised in a Catholic family, served as an altar boy, was baptized, confirmed and married in the Catholic church, and attended a Catholic college. One of the turning points in my life was being driven from the Catholic church threough a life-changing confrontation with a priest during my pre-marital preparation process. That experience led to my leaving the Catholic church, embarking on a search for truth, meeting Jesus Christ, and consequently rearranging the course of my life. As a result of that journey, I understand the genesis of these statistics regarding Catholicism in America today. Perhaps the most perplexing number of all, given Catholic doctrine, has been the slump in church attendance among Catholics, which may be the most indicative of all the factors of the growing spiritual apathy or sense of resignation in many Catholic parishes.

These comments are in no way meant to be a diatribe against Catholicism and I am not suggesting that there are not millions of spiritually alive Catholics; indisputably there are.

In fact, if we look at the born again statistics by denomination, the Catholic church is home to the second largest number of born again adults in the U.S. In fact, the percentage of adult Catholics who now satisfy the born again criteria – i.e., having made a personal commitment to Jesus Christ that is important in their life today, and believing they will experience Heaven after they die only because they confessed their sins and accepted Jesus Christ as their savior – has doubled since 1991. That is more than twice the growth rate among Protestants. But the data clearly reveal a huge denomination with loads of untapped spiritual potential. (To be fair, I could make a similar statement about many other denominations, too – but none of them has anywhere close to the massive number of adherents of the Catholic body.)

One pattern masked by looking only at data accumulated at the start of two decades (1991 and 2011) is that the last ten years has seen some recovery in Bible reading among Protestants. Reading the scriptures dropped from 64% in 1991 to 48% in 2001, but has since climbed back to 57% – not a full return, but positive movement to be thankful for. To be sure, the thing that matters most is what people do with what they read from God’s Word, but getting people into the Book is at least a hopeful starting point.

A final observation has to do with another group that is reflecting declining depth of commitment: born again Christians. As the number of born again adults has increased (from 35% in 1991 to 41% today), the engagement in the Christian life seems to have waned – a common problem when a product, service, movement, or perspective gains massive numbers and velocity. Note that during the last two decades several critical reflections of spiritual devotion, such as church attendance and Bible reading, have dropped among the born again constituency. In the past decade, even the proportion of born again adults who say their faith is vitally important to them has dipped substantially.

What should we make of this growing complacency among the born again group? I attribute it to a central finding in the Maximum Faith research showing that many ask for God’s forgiveness but few are willing to suffer and sacrifice in order to be broken of sin and move on to a life of surrender and submission that produces a deeper relationship with God and a genuine love for other people. Bonhoeffer’s description of such a spiritual condition, the pursuit of cheap grace, fits America all too snuggly today.

The tracking data demonstrate that there has been a lot of movement in people’s faith over the past two decades. Over the past few days I’ve released reports detailing some of those changes according to gender, age, race and ethnicity, and now region.

How did you anticipate religious change to be distributed geographically? My expectation was that the convergence of several factors – decades of rampant household mobility, the democratization and universal accessibility of information, a cultural shift toward postmodernism, and the redefinition of ministry “success” in church circles – would produce a completely different theolographic™ geography. (In case you – like most people – missed it, I started using the term theolographic™ about two decades ago to describe matters related to religious behavior and beliefs.)

To my surprise, that is not the case. Yes, there has been a lot of movement within regions regarding religious beliefs and behaviors. However, two particular analyses show that while the four regions have not experienced the identified changes in lockstep, there is a shocking degree of similarity in the transitions that have happened during the past 20 years.

First, consider the rankings of the regions on 11 of the measures we tracked. (Rankings are provided in the accompanying table.) In 1991, the South reflected the most “Christian” position on nine of those measures, and the Midwest was firmly in second place, placing second on eight of them (and first on two others). In 2011, the South placed first in all 11 measures, and the Midwest was next in line on nine of those measures. Looking at the coastal regions, in 1991 the West was on the bottom rung of the ladder related to three of the factors and was third on seven factors; in 2011 the West held the final position on four factors and third position related to five factors. In other words, not much has changed, at least in terms of rankings.

Another way of examining how things have transitioned is through a gap analysis – i.e., an examination of the size of the gap between the results of the regions on the various factors involved. To anchor the analysis, I compared each region to the statistics for the South. In doing this analysis across the 11 variables of most interest, the results were strikingly similar to what we find in the rankings. The average gap across the 11 factors between the Northeast and South was 14 percentage points in 1991; it was 15 points in 2011. The mean gap between the Midwest and South was seven percentage points in 1991; it was exactly the same in 2011. The biggest change was between the South and West, where the average gap went from 10 points in 1991 to 13 points in 2011. That is a noteworthy difference, but not large enough to make a big deal over.

One pragmatic conclusion we can draw is that a handful of trends have occurred across the nation and thus deserve focused attention. For instance, all four regions experienced double-digit increases in the percentage of unchurched adults. Three of the four regions endured statistically significant declines in the proportion of adults who are confident that the Bible is accurate in the principles it teaches. (Only the Northeast was left out of that shift; the three point drop it experienced did not exceed the maximum level of sampling error.)

But at the end of the day, I return to one of the lessons gleaned when I was learning the ropes regarding the gathering and analysis of religious data in the U.S. In general, any particular faith practice or religious belief that squares with the Bible or with traditional Christian teachings and expectations is likely to be most prolific in the South and Midwest, while the Northeast and West will be more similar to each other, lagging well behind the more biblically-consistent faith behaviors and beliefs of residents of the interior states.

One of the fascinating realities about the new data is that it is likely to shock a lot of pastors – well, at least those who are not Hispanic. Since conventional churches are overwhelmingly segregated, white, black, and Asian pastors are not likely to be well-informed about the current changes happening in the Hispanic faith community. (I’m not saying they don’t care, only that their focus is generally not upon reaching people from racial or ethnic groups other than that which their church presently serves.) In other words, most church leaders who operate outside of the Hispanic world may find the trends interesting or even alarming, but not personally relevant.

One of the outcomes that rocked me was the dramatic surge in the unchurched proportion among Hispanics. While the unchurched average has exploded among whites and blacks during the past two decades as well, only Hispanics doubled their percentage of unchurched adults. This condition is especially significant because of the large family sizes and young age of the Hispanic segment. Past studies we have conducted indicated that being an unchurched adult is related to one’s church experiences while young. If America’s Hispanic adults are increasingly shifting away from church attendance – or any kind of organized faith experience – the future does not bode well for the expansion of Christianity in the U.S.

Let me also point out a contextual factor of importance in this discussion. In 1991, 68% of Hispanics were associated with a Catholic church, 20% with a Protestant congregation. By 2011, the Protestant figure was roughly the same, but the proportion of Hispanics associated with Catholicism sunk to just 45%. The key insight is that most of those people who used to frequent a Catholic church simply dropped out of organized religion altogether.

Reclaiming the lost portion of the Hispanic population for Christ will take a lot more than simply figuring out how to custom design worship services and family programs that they find appealing. The operative principle beneath their movement out of the church world is that we do what we believe; actions follow beliefs. The perspectives that are most forcefully driving Hispanics out the door are a declining belief in the existence of the God of the scriptures and a huge loss of faith in the accuracy and authority of the Bible. Until those cornerstones are effectively addressed, and the growing objections and mistrust of Hispanics adequately answered, mere changes in formats and programs will not reverse their decision to abandon organized Christianity.

By the way, here’s a little more food for thought (since many people may not be too exercised about the departure of Hispanics from the Church.) Some of the early measurements suggest that we may be facing a similar long-term exodus among young white people. We’ll touch on that another day…

• From 1991 to 2011, of the 14 dimensions tracked, men’s average score declined by at least 10 percentage points on one factor (certainty that the Bible’s principles are accurate). However, women’s average scores dropped by 10 or more points on four indicators (church attendance, orthodox view of God, Bible reading, and a huge rise in being unchurched).

• Women used to put men to shame in terms of their orthodoxy of belief and the breadth and consistency of their religious behavior. No more; the religious gender gap has substantially closed. In 1991, there were 6 of the 14 tracked dimensions in which the gap between the genders was at least 10 percentage points (and in all cases women had scores that were more positive from a biblical standpoint). In 2011, there were only two indicators reflecting such a gap. (For the record, those indicators were having made a personal commitment to Christ and contending that religious faith is very important in their life.)

• The double-digit gaps that existed between the genders on five of the 14 factors back in 1991 had been substantially diminished by 2011 – and even reversed in one instance. For instance, while women were more likely to read the Bible during the week than were men in 1991 (50% compared to 40%) the pattern was reversed by 2001 – 41% of men read the Bible during the week in the 2011 study compared to 40% of women. While that single percentage point of difference may be a measurement artifact, the elimination of that gap is what is striking. Other notable reductions in the difference between the genders included an eight-point drop in the unchurched gap (down from 12 points) and a seven-point decline in the margin around religious faith being very important (down from 21 points to 14).